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MAZINAIGANPAGE12UpdateoncliinthecededOdanahWis.Backinthespring2006issueoftheMazinaiganwetriedtopresentanoverviewoftheclimatechangeissue.NamelywhatisitHowwillitaffecttribesandtreatyresourcesWhyshouldweworryAtthattimethebestwecoulddowasprovideanoverviewandsomegeneralizedconclusionsaboutwhattoexpect.Nowwecandoabitbetter.Therehavebeenvastadvancesinthescienceofmodelingandpredictingclimatechangeeffectsandtherehavebeenadvancesintheabilitytodescribetheexpectedchangesatscalethatmakessensetomostofus.Sadlytherehasalsobeenanincreaseinthelevelofnoiseandconfusionregardingtheissuethatistheresultofanefforttodenythatclimatechangeisoccurring.ThisarticlewillattempttoprovidesomeclarityonbothoftheseissuesandwillprovideasummaryofGLIFWCsworkonclimatechange.IsclimatechangerealOrisitahoaxFromascientificperspectivetheongoingdenialoftherealityofclimatechangeisdisturbing.Therefusaltoacceptclimatechangeisbasedonanumberofirrationalbeliefsthatarenotworthyofaresponsethingslikegovernmentconspiraciesandecoterrorism.Therearetwoargumentsagainstclimatechangepredictionsthatareworthyofaresponse.FirstthatcomputermodelsthatareusedtomakepredictionsareincorrectandsecondthatthewarmingthathasbeenrecordedoverthelastfewdecadesispartoflongtermnaturalcyclesoftheEarth.Onthefirstargumentallcomputermodelshaveerrorandnosinglemodelcanclaima100accuratetrackrecordonpredictingchangesinclimate.Thatiswhythepredictionsoffutureclimatesalwaysrelyonacombinationofdozensofthesemodelsbasicallyanaverageoftheiroutput.Thesemodelshavebeenavailableformanyyears.Comparisonsbetweenaggregatedmodelresultsandactualmeasureddataacrosstheworldhavevalidatedthemodelingeffort.Inanutshellsomemodelspredictlowertemperaturesandsomemodelspredicthighertemperaturesthanwhathasbeenobserved.HoweverdespitethisvariabilitytheoverallpredictedclimatechangesignalisaccurateFigure1IPCC2014.Thesecondargumentalsofailswhenscientificallyexamined.Extensiveanaly-sishasshownthatthereisa0.1chancethatMotherNatureissolelyresponsibleforthedegreeofglobalwarmingthattheplanethasexperiencedsince1880.Putanotherwaythereisa99.9confidencethatclimatechangeisrealandcausedbyhumanactivity.Lovejoy2014Lovejoyisnotaloneindrawingtheseconclusions.FromNovemberof2012throughDecemberof2013approximately2200climatechangearticleswerepublishedinpeer-reviewedjournals.Onlyoneoftheseconcludedthatmanmadeclimatechangedidnotexist.Powell2014SowhywasthiswintersocoldByallaccountsthispastwinterseasonwasverycold.AnishinaabegGichigamiwascompletelyfrozenformuchofthewinteranddangerouslycoldairtemperaturesof-30Fwerenotuncommon.Ataglancethiscoldseemstocontradicttheassertionthattheplanetisgettingwarmerandthatclimatesarechanging.HoweverwhiletheGreatLakesregionwasverycoldtheplanetasawholestillexperiencedverywarmtemperatures.InfacttheJanuary-Marchglobaltemperatureaveragewinterwasthe4thwarmesteverrecorded.Eventhecoldweathercouldbeanindicationthatclimatesarechanging.Oneofthemostobvioussignsofclimatechangeisincreasinginstabilityintheatmosphereandanincreaseinextremeweathereventsincludingextremecoldtemperatures.Thislastwinterthemediagavealotofcoveragetothepolarvortexthatwasblamedforthecold.Whileitsaccuratetosaythatthecoldwastheresultofpolarairmovingintothecededterritoriesthepolarvortexisadifferentfeaturealtogether.Thepolarvortexisanamegiventoawindpatternthatcirclesaroundthearctic.Thewindpatternformsattheborderofthefrigidarcticairmassandthewarmerairmasstothesouth.Onceinawhilethevortexbecomesweakerandthisallowsthearcticairtomovefurthersouththanusual.Thecriticalpointisindescribingthereasonsthatcausethepolarvortextoweaken.Dataindicatesthatthemorearcticicemeltsduringthesummertheweakerthepolarvortexbecomesthefollowingwinter.ThisisbecauseliquidwaterradiatesmoreheatintotheatmospherethanicedoesandthisheatdisruptsthepolarvortexFigure2.Itiswellknownthatarcticicehasbeendisappearingmoreandmoreeverysummerduetoclimatechange.ThistrendisexpectedtocontinuebecausethearcticiswarmingveryquicklyandthereforeitisreasonabletoexpectmanyreturnvisitsoffrigidarcticairtotheLakeSuperiorregioninthefuture.Greene2012ClimatechangeinthecededterritoriesTheWisconsinInitiativeonClimateChangeImpactsWICCIwasoneofthefirstgroupsintheworldtoattempttocharacterizetheeffectsofclimatechangeonspecificplacesandresources.Untilrecentlymodelsofclimatechangescenarioshavebeenglobalinscalewhichisnotofmuchuseinnaturalresourcemanagement.ScientistsfromtheUniversityofWisconsinhavedownscaledtheglobalclimatechangemodelstospecificallyassesstheexpectedchangesinclimateacrossthecededterritories.Thedataconsistsoftwoparts.FirstProfessorDanVimontofUW-Madisonconductedthedownscalingof12globalclimatemodelstoamuchfinerscale.Theresultsprovideinsightintotheclimatechangeimpactsthatthecededterritorieswillexperienceoverthenext100years.SecondProfessorChrisKucharikofUW-Madisondevelopedacollectionofmostoftheavailableclimatedatae.g.temperatureandprecipitationrecords.Thisdatasetofweatherobservationswasusedtoinvestigateclimatechangesthathaveoccurredfrom1960tothepresentandtoprovideacomparisonforthedownscaledmodels.Theresultshavebeenpeer-reviewedandthereisverygoodagreementbetweentheobserveddataandthemodeledpredictions.Theresultsindicatethatthecededterritoriesarelikelytoundergosomesignifi-cantchangesinthenext50years.UsingWisconsinasanexamplesince1950thestatesaveragetemperaturehasincreasedby1FhoweverthisstatewidenumberByJenVanatorGLIFWCGreatLakesProgramCoordinatorandEstebanChiribogaGLIFWCGISMappingSpecialistFigure1.Graphcomparingclimatemodeloutputwithobservedtemperaturedata.Themeasuredtemperaturesblacklinefallswithintherangeofvariabilityofthevariousmodeloutputsandprovidescondencethatthemodelsprovidereasonablepredictionsoffutureclimates.Figure2.Anillustrationoftheweakpolarvortex3whichleadstoarcticairmovingfurthersouththannormal4.Thereisa99.9confidencethatclimatechangeisrealandcausedbyhumanactivity.Lovejoy2014CLIMATE